a significant disconnect between Washington’s rhetoric and the reality of the India-Russia partnership
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the State Duma (the lower house of Parliament) that, despite the recent announcement of a “historic” US-India trade deal, Moscow has received no official confirmation from New Delhi of a halt to energy imports. Addressing lawmakers, Lavrov stated, “Except U.S. President Donald Trump, nobody else has declared that India will stop buying Russian oil.” He emphasised that neither Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor any other Indian leader has corroborated the White House’s narrative of a total energy pivot.
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A Conflict of Narratives Between Washington and New Delhi
The controversy centres on a White House factsheet and an executive order signed by President Trump on 6 February 2026, which claimed that a 25% tariff penalty on Indian goods was being removed “in recognition of India’s commitment to stop purchasing Russian Federation oil.” However, the official bilateral joint statement released by both nations notably omitted any such pledge. Moscow’s rejection of this claim suggests that Washington may be projecting a “maximalist” version of the deal that New Delhi has yet to officially endorse.
India’s Multi-Alignment and Diversification Strategy
While the US administration has framed the trade deal as a definitive “break” from Russian energy, Indian officials have remained more nuanced. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri recently clarified that “national interests” and energy security priorities remain the guiding factors for India’s oil procurement. While India has shown interest in increasing imports from the US and Venezuela to diversify its supply chain, New Delhi has consistently avoided making public commitments to a complete boycott of Russian crude, which currently accounts for a substantial portion of its energy basket.
The BRICS Factor and Strategic Autonomy
Lavrov’s comments come as India formally assumes the BRICS chairmanship for 2026. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has already signalled that energy security priorities will be a top agenda item for the upcoming BRICS summit, which President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend. The Kremlin has signalled its intent to support India’s chairmanship, viewing it as a platform to push back against “coercive” US measures. Moscow contends that the US is using tariffs and sanctions to force partners like India to purchase more expensive American liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead of affordable Russian energy.
Economic Realities vs. Political Branding
Analysts note that a complete cessation of Russian oil imports would be a massive logistical and financial undertaking for India. Russian Urals crude is a “heavy” grade that Indian refiners have spent billions of dollars optimising their facilities to process. Replacing this with “lighter” American shale oil would incur high technical costs and potentially raise India’s import bill by billions of dollars. This economic reality underpins Moscow’s scepticism of the US claims, suggesting that the “oil pivot” may be more of a political branding exercise for the Trump administration than a settled commercial fact.
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The Hinge Point
The 11 February 2026 address by Sergei Lavrov marks the exact moment when the “Russia-India-USA” triangle shifts from a trade negotiation to a public credibility test. This is the hinge point because it forces New Delhi to either confirm the US version of the deal—potentially damaging its 70-year relationship with Moscow, or openly contradict President Trump. The story changes here because it highlights that the 2026 Trade Deal is not a static agreement but a live geopolitical battlefield where energy security priorities are being leveraged by both global superpowers.
What can no longer remain the same is the ability for all three parties to maintain “strategic ambiguity.” By calling out the US narrative in Parliament, Moscow has effectively set a deadline for New Delhi to clarify the terms of its energy future. This marks the end of the “best of both worlds” era in Indian oil procurement and the beginning of a high-stakes period in which every barrel purchased will be viewed as a political statement of alignment.